Opinion: For BJP, Bihar Will Be Another Delhi

Bihar is the new jigsaw puzzle for the political establishment. Lines have already been drawn. Two opinion polls have come in, one giving advantage to the BJP, and the other to the Nitish-Lalu-Congress combine. Political pundits and seasoned journalists are confused. The assessment of the situation also has caste overtones and accordingly the war between Jungleraj 2 and Mandalraj 2 is being pontificated. There seems to be nothing normal in this war, as stakes are high for the protagonists on both sides.

For Mr Prime Minister, it is time to regain his lost glory after the Delhi debacle, and for Mr. Chief Minister, it’s time to prove that he is the true champion of Mandal politics who has successfully synthesized caste with development. At stake is also the future of the religion-based politics of BJP and the hidden agenda of the RSS and its affiliates. Bihar will also decide if the country after so many years of its independence has really forsaken pluralistic politics and  its liberal social climate, or are recent developments just a temporary disruption? These elections will also send a signal to the global audience that India, as a nation, despite a right-wing tilt, has not forgotten its roots and is still a vibrant democracy.

Bihar with its rich history has lagged behind in the race of development and was till recently termed a bimaru (sick) state but in the last ten years, it has leapt to emerge as one of the fastest-growing states. The credit undoubtedly goes to Nitish Kumar. It’s still a feudal society with only a few urban centers. Literacy is improving but is still much below the national average. Mobile penetration still leaves a lot to be desired. And caste is still the prime denominator of identity. Bihar was the land of the best and worst experiments of post-Mandal caste politics; no wonder, unlike in Delhi, no discussion is complete without the caste analysis of the state. Much before the election was announced, the BJP tried to stitch a winning caste combination. Jitan Ram Manjhi was lured into its fold by the BJP with a design to wean away the most Dalit amongst Dalits, a caste that Nitish Kumar had cultivated as his vote bank after becoming the Chief Minister. The only consideration for making Jitan Ram Manjhi as the Chief Minister of Bihar by Nitish Kumar after the parliamentary debacle was to consolidate his “Maha Dalit” vote bank which seems to have boomeranged very badly.

During the 2014 elections, the BJP successfully managed to have a coalition with Upendra Kushwaha and Ram Vilas Paswan. The idea was to dent Nitish Kumar’s OBC and Dalit vote bank. The BJP got its arithmetic right and the NDA returned with an unprecedented 31 seats out of 40. Those who are advocating the BJP’s win in the upcoming election too are confident that Manjhi joining its fold has further strengthened this caste formation. In their opinion, Modi’s popularity, coupled with the announcement of a special package of one lakh twenty five thousand crores will do wonders for Mr Prime Minister. Modi supporters are also relying on the belief that Lalu’s company has severely damaged the reputation of Nitish as a prime mover of development and that will be of great advantage to the BJP.

(Ashutosh joined the Aam Aadmi Party in January 2014.)

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